First Suppress Then Rise, Followed by Fluctuation—Short-Term Upside Momentum for Stainless Steel Scrap Remains Insufficient [SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review]

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, while prices in Foshan were largely stable at 8,950-9,250 yuan/mt. Currently, the production cost for stainless steel calculated by raw material was approximately 12,825 yuan/mt using entirely stainless steel scrap, and about 12,974.57 yuan/mt using entirely high-grade NPI. This week, a steel mill in south China left its tax-included procurement price for 304 stainless steel scrap unchanged.

This week, driven by news, stainless steel futures first fell then rose, leading spot stainless steel prices to increase synchronously on Friday. On the raw material side, high-grade NPI prices weakened again after a brief rebound last week due to sluggish transactions and sparse buying interest; although high-carbon ferrochrome edged up slightly, it failed to reverse the overall market weakness, while stainless steel scrap prices hit bottom before rebounding during the week. Despite steel mills' production cuts falling short of market expectations, keeping raw material demand high, and stainless steel scrap still holding a significant cost advantage over high-grade NPI, weak year-end demand coupled with insufficient market confidence suggests the news-driven rally may be short-lived. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range with limited upward momentum, and caution is warranted against further downside risks from weakening demand.